Dependency vs. Leverage

The Question This Frame Answers

Who actually owns the downside?

This frame evaluates whether an individual, company, or system is building durable leverage — or operating inside a dependency where rules, economics, or access can be changed unilaterally.

What Most People Get Wrong

Most people focus on upside first.

They optimize growth, reach, distribution, or efficiency without examining who controls the interface, the rules, or the constraints underneath that upside.

Dependency often looks attractive early because it accelerates results. The cost only becomes visible when conditions change.

What Actually Matters

Leverage exists when outcomes improve disproportionately with scale, while downside remains bounded or optional.

Dependency exists when upside is shared but downside is asymmetric — especially when another party can alter terms, access, or visibility at will.

Signals I Watch
  • Who controls the primary interface or distribution layer
  • Whether terms can be changed unilaterally
  • How difficult it is to exit without loss of identity or audience
  • Whether success increases bargaining power or erodes it
Signals I Ignore
  • Short-term traffic or usage spikes
  • Platform-provided incentives that are reversible
  • Prestige or perceived association with powerful intermediaries
  • Consensus narratives about “where the industry is going”
When This Frame Applies

This frame applies whenever success depends on an external system, platform, intermediary, or gatekeeper — especially in periods of technological transition.

It is foundational in evaluating media, technology platforms, marketplaces, capital structures, and AI-mediated visibility.

When This Frame Does Not Apply

This frame is less relevant when outcomes are fully controlled, incentives are symmetric, and exit costs are low.

In those cases, optimization and execution matter more than structural positioning.

How This Frame Interacts With the Other Two

Dependency vs. Leverage establishes the structural landscape. Timing Asymmetry determines when to act within that landscape. Signal vs. Narrative filters noise that obscures real dependency.

If leverage is absent, timing and signal discipline become critical to preserving optionality.

Strategy Desk · Decision Framing . Timing Asymmetry · Signal vs. Narrative