What information reflects underlying reality — and what exists primarily to persuade?
This frame distinguishes durable signals from narratives designed to influence behavior, manage perception, or delay recognition of structural change.
Most people assume that repeated narratives eventually become truth.
They overweight visibility, confidence, and consensus, mistaking volume and conviction for evidence.
In reality, narratives often intensify precisely when signal is weak.
Signal is costly to produce, difficult to fake, and often boring.
Narrative is inexpensive, emotionally resonant, and optimized for spread — especially during periods of uncertainty.
The discipline is learning to recognize which is which, and to act only when signal aligns with structure and timing.
This frame applies whenever perception itself becomes a strategic variable — including media cycles, market narratives, platform transitions, and moments of institutional defense.
It is essential when incentives to persuade outweigh incentives to disclose.
Signal vs. Narrative matters less in tightly constrained systems where outcomes are directly observable and feedback is immediate.
In those cases, execution quality dominates interpretation.
Dependency vs. Leverage reveals who benefits from the narrative. Timing Asymmetry determines when narrative collapses under signal.
When signal, leverage, and timing align, action becomes obvious — and often lonely.